PROBABILITY-DOUBLE COMPLEXITY

FOR A HUNDRED THOUSAND YEARS OR SO HUMAN BRAINS WERE CONDITIONED TO BE MOSTLY AWARE OF DANGER AND SEEKING FOOD AND SHELTER।TODAY OUR BRAINS FUNCTION PRETTY MUCH IN THE SAME .WHEN
PROBLEMS OF MULTIPLE COMPLEXITIES ARISE WE WITHOUT EXCEPTION FAIL
TO SEE THE EFFECT OF ONE COMPLEXITY ON THE OTHER-EVEN EXPERTS IN
EVERY FIELD-FROM STOCKBROKERS TO SCIENTISTS-FAIL CONSISTANTLY WHEN
PRESENTED WITH PROBLEMS THAT INCLUDE MULTIPLE COMPLEXITIES.THE
AWARENESS OF HOW TO FIGURE OUT THE EFFECTS OF THESE DOUBLED
COMPLEXITIES-EVEN TO SPOT THEM-JUST ISN'T IN OUR GENES OR OUR MINDS।
HERE IS A SIMPLE BUT GOOD EXAMPLE।THE AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF AN
AMERICAN IS 76.WE CALCULATE THAT AS THAT PERSON AGES THIER
ODDS OF DYING GO UP IN PROPORTION TO THE NUMBER OF YEARS THEY
HAVE LIVED. BUT SCIENTIFICALLY THIS IS NOT TRUE.AS A PERSON AGES
THIER CHANCES OF LIVING TO AN EVEN OLDER AGE GO UP ! THE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE DIED AT A YOUNGER AGE HAVE TAKEN THIER PLACE IN THE FORMER EQUATION SO THAT NOW WHEN BOTH FACTORS ARE FIGURED INTO
THE EQUATION THE OLDER PERSONS CHANCES OF LIVING TO AN EVEN
OLDER AGE INCREASE।
YOU CAN SEE NOW EVEN THOUGH I HAVE STATED THE FACTS IN A SIMPLE
MANNER;OUR MINDS,INCLUDING MINE,FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THIS SIMPLE
DOUBLE COMPLEXITY COMPUTATION।
BUT TELL IT TO AN OLDER PERSON AND THEY MAY BE MORE INCLINED TO
ACCEPT THE FACTS OWEING TO THE RESULTS BEING THAT THEY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT LIVING AN EVEN LONGER LIFE.IN OTHER WORDS-THERE IS SOMETHING OF GREAT IMPORT IN IT FOR THEM-MORE LIFE।TIME REALLY IS ON THIER SIDE.
P। HOLLY 11/21/2007
{sorces-Fooled by Randomness-Nassim Nicholas Taleb-Natonal Geographic-2000-Millennium
issue}